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We estimate a compound annual growth rate for electronic mortgages / earnings of 27% / 47% during fiscal year 21-23e (return on assets / return on equity of 6.6% / 28.4% in fiscal year 23e). However, we started protection at a neutral level due to costly valuations and restricted upside of our profit taking of Rs 1,200. The stock has corrected nearly 11% since our inception and is buying and selling at 35 times dividends in fiscal 23e, which is attractive given its strong fundamentals, dividend development and long-term structural history. In CMP, the stock represents a rally of about 23% to Rs 1,200 TP unchanged (43x FY23e EPS). Therefore, we are working to update our score to "Buy". Our earnings estimates have not changed.
Growth momentum to accelerate. Offers a new game on the rise of retail
SBICARD's spending rate has touched pre-COVID ranges (over 100% in retail spending), while it gained around 50 basis points of market share in premium playing cards. A continued rebound within the economic system, combined with a better mix of online / retail spending, will accelerate the momentum for expansion. SBICARD is the only publicly traded company within its region that plays a direct role in the credit card trade. Expect a 22% / 27% CAGR / Premium Bank Card during FY 21-23 eCommerce. Similar to SBICARD it can be increased by 27% / 32% CAGR.This SBI card news is attracting much of the attention these days.
Strong underlying profitability from absorption of credit rating rate; PCR to remain beneficial 72%
Underlying business performance remains strong, allowing for shock absorption from quality assets. Although the credit rating rate has increased by almost 9% during fiscal 2020, the return on assets / return on equity is strong here at 5.5% / 28%. Even in the 9 months of Fiscal Year 21, the credit rating rate remained high at 10.5%, but the rates of return were fair at 4.3% / 18.5%. While we expect delinquency to remain excessive, given the insecure nature of the e-book, which can keep the credit rating rate high, performance indices tend to stay healthy and improve steadily as the credit rating rate moderates. We expect NNPA to reach a reasonable 1.2% for fiscal 23e, while PCR will maintain ~ 72%.
The return on stock returns was approximately 28% in fiscal year 23e
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